Why Iowa State?
1.
As of the date of this post Iowa State is 8th on both the AP and coach’s poll on ESPN. They similarly rank 8th in Basketball Power Index (BPI) as well.
2.
With five games left in the regular season for ISU, we expect their games against BYU and OKST to be a safe bet for ISU. We also expect their games against KSU and ARIZ to be leaning more in Iowa State’s favor. With KSU’s worse record and current loss streak of two. And ARIZ with a worse overall combined record and only a narrow victory over ISU the first time they played.
3.
We also might see Iowa State’s recent four game win streak play a role in their upcoming games. It seems no one has been able to stop this cyclone, and we certainly don’t think it will stop at only four victories.
Why not Someone Else?
Wisconsin, Michigan, and Michigan State are all the other Midwest colleges that stand the best chance, besides Iowa State. Out of these four schools, three have the same record of 21-5 with Michigan lagging behind one game at 20-5. With similar records, histories, and levels of play, why do we put our faith into Iowa State? Let’s break down some of these team’s stats, maybe the explanation is in there.
Wisconsin:
Simply popping the team stats and ranking in that stats category into Excel and stacking them side-by-side, we can really start to gather a good idea of what makes Iowa State so good. In this analysis, we simply assign a color to each ranking. Yellow is one point, red is two points. If a stat is in the top 10 of all teams and beats the other team’s stat, it turns red. Or if the rankings differ by 100 places, then it turns red.
With Wisconsin and Iowa State we can see, overall, Iowa State is the better team. They accumulated more points in this analysis and managed to have no stat below the 268th place. While Wisconsin on the other hand, scored significantly less points and holds an incredibly low record in 2-point attempts. This data also gives us some insight into how each team plays. Wisconsin likely valuing 3-pointers over layups and jump shots.
Michigan:
Keeping the same color rules in mind we see an incredibly similar story with Michigan as well. A team that seems to value 3-pointers over other kinds of shots. We also see Michigan’s points being even lower than Wisconsin. Spoiler alert, this is even lower than their counterpart Michigan State as well.
Michigan State:
Michigan State is the team that serves the best chance of coming out on top in Midwest Basketball besides Iowa State. Michigan State is also the team that shows a very different story when compared to Wisconsin and Michigan. Iowa State actually beats Michigan State in 2P%, 3P, 3PA, and 3P%, categories they lost when compared to Wisconsin and Michigan. We also see the much closer point total with Iowa State narrowly beating Michigan State. The biggest glaring factor that we believe supports Iowa State’s victory in the analysis is looking at the four stats in which Michigan State holds a record below the top 300 schools. 3P, 3PA, 3P%, and worst of all STL. Iowa State proves it’s self to be a more balanced team in that regared proving they some more flexiblity to leave the paint and sit on the 3-point line.
Conculsion: Iowa State the More Rounded Team
Going back to the rankings of all the teams we can use builtin features like COUNT and SUM to give us the average ranking for each of these teams.
Last Place, Michigan: 143rd place
Third Place, Wisconsin: 136th place
Second Place, Michigan State: 119th place
First Place, Iowa State: 104th place
If you dont like Iowa State and you prefer using MEDIAN your in luck.
Last Place, Michigan: 125th place
Third Place, Iowa State: 98th place
Second Place, Wisconsin: 95th place
First Place, Michigan State: 64th place
What we can more or less gather from these averages is that Wisconsin and Michigan are they least likely to be the best schools out of the Midwest. Both had means well below ISU and MSU. Michigan also had a median well below ISU. That leaves us with Michigan State and Iowa State. With such close stats, some would argue that MSU’s overwhelming victory, when taking a median average, is enough to wrap up this conversation.
The unfortunate truth about basketball is that stats don’t matter. We can, and will, keep breaking down the stats, but no one knows when the next upset is going to happen. So, of course, the only logical conclusion we can come to: What’s your opinion? Do you think ISU stands a better chance in March Madness or will MSU go farther for the Midwest? Only time will tell.
Cyclones vs. Spartans
-The FastBreakStats Blog
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