Upsets: What Are They?
Within our scope and understanding here at FastBreak, an upset occurs when a team that is significantly statistically worse than its opposing team still wins the game. Usually, a seed difference of at least 3 or 4 is required for the win to be considered an upset, but that’s not always the case. Pretty much any 3 seed or below upsetting the current Duke team would be considered an upset due to Duke’s dominance in the regular season and the tournament, despite the lack of a 3-4 seed gap.
We can also look at another term that goes along with upsets called a ‘Cinderella run’. This is when a low-seeded team goes on a ‘run’ and upsets teams it really shouldn’t be beating. For example, if Arkansas were to continue their upset streak and win in the Sweet Sixteen, we would consider it a ‘Cinderella run’.
Please look for all the following information on the NCAA official website.
The Best Upsets in Men’s College Basketball
Given our consideration we think there are two main examples of the greatest upsets of all time.
- Either upset by 16 seeds UMBC (2018) or FDU (2023). Both teams won over 1 seeds Virginia and Purdue respectively. FDU won their match against Purdue 63-58, whereas UMBC won against Virginia 74-54 and became the first 16 seed to defeat a 1 seed in Men’s College Basketball. However, neither team went on to win their second round.
- Our other consideration for the greatest upset of all time goes to the 1985 Villanova Wildcats. A rather infamous team for the simple fact that they are the lowest seed to have ever won the NCAA March Madness tournament.
They beat a 9 seed in their first game then proceeded to upset a 1 seed, 5 seed, 2 seed, another 2 seed, and another 1 seed Georgetown for the tournament win, in that order.
While everyone has their own thoughts on the topic, it’s important to keep in mind that each team only plays each other once. 16 seed upsets are usually made out to be flukes, off-days, or simply bad luck. However, Villanova’s incredible run is extremely hard to write off as any of those. In our eyes we see Villanova as the clear winner within this category.
2025 Men’s March Madness Upsets
Starting in the South, we have had one upset as of 3/23 at 1:30 pm CT. (This time frame will extend to every region)
10 New Mexico vs. 7 Marquette 75-66
When looking at some of the surface-level stats, we see one glaring reason for why this upset happened: free throws. New Mexico not only had the chance to shoot 21 free throws but also made 18 of them for a make percentage of 85%. When compared to the 7/12 of Marquette, it’s clear that this game was won on that free-throw line.
Moving into the East we similarly have a single upset.
6 BYU vs. 3 Wisconsin 91-89
When considering what’s an upset and what’s not, this game rides the line very well. We have a three-seed difference, much like our single game in the south. Looking at the stats of the game we don’t see a truly stand-out reason for BYU winning this over Wisconsin. While they had a better free-throw percentage, Wisconsin had the opportunity to shoot more and consequently made more. A lot of the stats point towards BYU having a good reason to lose this game. Having more fouls and turnovers, and having lower free-throw attempts and 3-point attempts. However, they seemed to take better quality shots by having a higher percentage of shots made in every single category.
Next up is the Midwest, again, this region managed to produce only a single upset.
12 McNeese vs. 5 Clemson 69-67
Much like our game from the East, our Midwest game has no standout stats. Blocks, field goal percentage, every type of rebound, steals, and assists are all the stats that McNeese leads Clemson in. With the first two being the only substantial leads and blocks not being a great pointer of who is more likely to win, it’s back to being an unclear situation. This is perhaps a great explanation as to why McNeese was more or less dominated in the next round by 4 Purdue, 76-62.
Unlike every other aforementioned region, the West has seemed to ‘pick up the slack’ in terms of upsets, with three upsets coming from this region.
12 Colorado St. vs 5 Memphis 78-70
Much like our first-mentioned game, this game seems to have been won from the free-throw line, but not to as much of a degree. Colorado St. shot 19/25 while Memphis shot 14/20. Both these ratios have similar percentages, with Colorado St. still leading by 6%. Unlike our first-mentioned game, this game also seemed to have been won from the three-point line. 11/30 and 6/23 for the winner and loser, respectively. A 10% difference in the percentage and a difference of 15 points. The stats point towards this; unlike the other 12 vs. 5 seed game, this Colorado St. team seems to have a much higher chance to do what McNeese didn’t and beat its 4 seed, Maryland.
11 Drake vs. 6 Missouri 67-57
While a couple of the upsets mentioned have been closely related to free-throws and fouls, this game flips that idea on its head. Missouri was 23/26 from the free-throw line, a simply amazing free-throw performance. However, Drake went 50% from the free-throw line, 12/24. They managed the bare minimum in terms of free-throw performance, but they managed to dominate Missouri in every other type of shooting. Drake: 25/46, 5/10, Missouri: 15/45, 4/16, both being field goal and 3-point shooting, respectively. Drake dominated on the floor rarely shooting 3-pointers and usually making them. Much like McNeese, however, Drake met a similar fate in their second game despite a solid performance against Missouri.
10 Arkansas vs 2 St. John’s 75-66
Last is the biggest seeding difference upset in the entire tournament thus far. A seed difference of 8 makes St. John’s the first 2 seed to be knocked out, and the first high-seeded team to be knocked out, just before Wisconsin later that day. There is a single stat that points towards the victory of Arkansas in this matchup, field goal percentage. Not only did Arkansas shoot a serviceable 42% from the floor, but St. John’s shot an abysmal 28%, leading to their ultimate demise. Arkansas seemingly didn’t allow St. John’s to take good shots.
What Should be Expected for the Remainder of the Tournament?
We are, again, writing this on March 23, in the middle of the 9 Baylor vs. 1 Duke game. It’s important to keep in mind that this game and almost every other game that has been and will be played today are possible upsets. If you are a fan of upsets and enjoy the thrill of them ruining your bracket, the best time to watch is now. Naturally, seed-based, obvious upsets occur less and less as the tournament continues. The Sweet Sixteen will be filled by the end of the night. And be on the lookout for 3 Texas Tech vs. 10 Arkansas and 1 Auburn vs. 5 Michigan as locked possible upset games next weekend.
-The FastBreakStats Blog
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